Track Record for Predictions for 2013, Part IV


Here are our grades for Part IV of our predictions:

Premature deathwatch of things that are very much alive.  Reporters and bloggers like to write is the purported death of various, usually popular items, devices or technology. Here’s a list we predicted would be proclaimed dead, and how accurate we were:
o    e-Readers: The Wall St. Journal, among others declared e-Readers as on the way out. We disagreed, and feel dedicated e-readers are doing fine, thanks. Grade: B+.
o    Flash: It’s probably on the way out but it’s not dead yet. Grade: B+.
o    PCs: Sales are declining but businesses continue to rely on PCs. That’s not going to change until tablets are more on par with PCs in terms of capabilities and performance Meanwhile, Deloitte says “larger screens and keyboards go a long way toward explaining the PC’s enduring popularity not only for work-related tasks, but also for watching videos.” Grade: B+.
o    Cable TV: More people may want to be cord-cutters but doing so requires more patience than a lot of people have. Cable TV subscribers will decline but many will stay as cable continues to improve the viewing experience on devices other than TV sets. Grade: B+
o    3D TVs and 3D glasses: We said that 3D glasses for the living room use is dying but 3D TVs are not yet dead but we’re not sure about the 3D TVs’ future. Grade: C+.
o    Blu-ray machines and DVDs: Blu-ray player sales were up 3 percent on Black Friday, according to Home Media Magazine. That’s pretty good for technology that was written off (by others) as being dead. Grade: B+.
o    Radio: There may be a lot of alternative apps to traditional radio, but radio continues on. Grade: A.
o    Landlines and cellphones that aren’t smartphones: These are not dead yet, either. Grade: A.
o    Press releases: Despite social media, there’s still a place and a value to press releases. Grade: A.
o    CES: No less than star consumer review David Pogue (formerly of the New York Times) called CES 2013: Spicing Up a Ho-Hum Tech Show.” Grade: A+.
o    Privacy: After leaks and NSA spying (neither of which we predicted), privacy continues to be a big issue. Grade: A.
o    The Office: We were talking about the need for offices as we’ve used them (not the NBC comedy “The Office).  According to a Wall St. Journal article, “Say Goodbye to the Office Cubicle; Walls Come Down as Many Companies Switch to Layouts Designed to Foster Collaboration,” one of the companies that helped “spawn the cubicle craze more than 40 years ago” is “turning a profit these days by trying to kill it off.” Bottom line: we still need offices. Grade: A.
o    Paper: We’re still a way from being paperless, nearly 40 years from the time BusinessWeek published an article claiming we would go paperless. Grade: A.
o    Social media gurus: This was one area that we felt was ready for the deathwatch, noting “Most of the ones we see claim to be gurus and to be able to help you generate thousands of followers – yet, anecdotally, many so-called gurus have relatively few followers themselves.” Not a lot of media coverage but a lot of social media backlash to self-proclaimed gurus. Grade: B+.
o    Media relations: We said, “Social media is no longer just for early-adopting B2B companies but media relations continues to be important. By the end of the decade, both media relations and social media will converge into a single integrated effort.” We stand by that. Grade: B.

We’ll post the another set of grades tomorrow. In the meantime, you can also check out our 2014, starting here.

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